HDFC Bank Equity Research

Date of Research – 18 January 2016

Price – Rs. 1033.00

About the Company

HDFC Bank Limited (“HDFC Bank” or the “Bank”) was incorporated in August 1994 in the name of ‘HDFC Bank Limited’, with its registered office in Mumbai, India and commenced operations as a Scheduled Commercial Bank in January 1995. HDFC Bank along with its subsidiaries (HDFC Securities Limited and HDB Financial Services Limited) is engaged in providing a wide range of banking and financial services in retail banking, wholesale banking and treasury operations.

Over the last ten years, HDFC Bank has grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 29.55% and has emerged as a market leader across multiple products.

For FY 2017, HDFC Bank’s net interest margins stood at a healthy 4.33 %. ~ 30% of its operating revenue came from non funded segments such as fees and commissions for services. For the same period, net NPA’s stood at 0.30 % far below the industry average for private banks. 43.0% of total deposits were in the form of low cost CASA deposits as on March 31, 2017.

As of March 31, 2017, HDFC Bank’s customer base was over 40 million and its distribution network was at 4,715 branches and 12,260 ATMs in 2,657 cities. 52% of the total branches are now in semi-urban and rural areas.

*HDFC split its equity in the ratio of 1:5 on 14 July 2011. EPS and P/E numbers are adjusted to reflect the effect of split.

Key Financial Figures

Consolidated (Rs. Cr)
Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Interest earned 35,861.02 42,555.02 50,666.49 63,161.57  73,271.36 
Interest expended 19,695.45 23,445.45 27,288.46 34,069.57  38,041.58 
Net Interest Income 16,165.57 19,109.57 23,378.03 29,092.00  35,229.78 
Other income 7,132.97 8,297.50 9,545.69 11,211.65  12,877.63 
Operating expenses 11,551.90 12,469.65 14,577.52 17,831.89  20,751.07 
Operating Profit 11,746.64 14,937.42 18,346.20 22,471.76 27,356.34 
Provisions (other than provisions for tax) and contingencies 1,742.63 1,726.75 2,266.75 2,960.77   3,990.81  
PBT 10,004.01 13,210.67 16,079.45 19,510.99   23,365.53  
Tax 3,103.73 4,446.16 5,379.40 6,693.66   8,078.12  
PAT (before Minority Interest and share of Associates) 6,900.28 8,764.51 10,700.05 12,817.33   15,287.41  
Profit/ (loss) attributable to Minority Interest 24.65 14.41 19.72  36.72  
Share of profit / (loss) of Associates (3.63) (3.25) (3.72)  (2.34) 
Consolidated Profit / (Loss) for the year 6,869.64 8,743.49 10,688.89 12,801.33   15,253.03  

Profitability Analysis

Consolidated (%)
Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Net Profit Margin Ratio 15.98 17.24 17.77 17.23  17.75 
Cost to Net Income Ratio 49.58 45.50 44.28 44.24  43.13 
Other Income to Net Income Ratio 30.62 30.28 28.99 27.82  26.77 

Net profit margin is arrived at by dividing profit after tax by the total income generated (i.e. interest earned plus other income) and shows what is left for the shareholders as a percentage of total income.

Cost to net income ratio is particularly important in valuing banks. It is derived by dividing operating expenses by the net income generated (i.e. net interest income plus the other income). The ratio highlights the efficiency with which the bank is being run – the lower it is, the more profitable the bank will be. If this ratio rises from one period to the next, it means that costs are rising at a higher rate than income. Together these ratios help in understanding the cost and profit structure of the bank and analysing business inefficiencies.

Other income largely constitutes of fee income such as commission and brokerage fees and client based merchant foreign exchange trade, service charges from account maintenance, transaction banking (including cash management services), syndication and placement fees, processing fees from loans and commission on non-funded products (such as letters of credit and bank guarantees) etc. Banks in developed countries derive nearly 50% of their income from these non-funded sources. A high other income to net income ratio is good for the bottom line (i.e. net profit) as income from this stream is derived without significant mobilisation of deposits and hence the cost associated with this income is relatively lower compared to interest income.

Key Balance Sheet Figures

Sources of Funds / Liabilities (Rs. Cr)
Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
Share Capital 469.34 475.88 479.81 501.30 505.64 
Money received against warrants – 
Reserves & Surplus 29,741.10 36,166.84 43,686.82 62,652.77 73,798.49 
Employee stock options grants 0.30 – 
Net worth (shareholders funds) 30,210.74 36,642.73 44,166.63 63,154.07 74,304.12 
Minority Interest 183.66 221.34 151.74 161.63 180.62 
Deposits 2,46,539.58 2,96,091.77 3,67,080.33 4,50,283.65 545,873.29 
Borrowings 26,334.15 39,496.61 49,596.72 59,478.25 71,763.45 
Other liabilities and provisions 37,786.88 35,270.54 42,624.55 34,018.93 38,140.33 
Total Liabilities 3,41,055.01 4,07,722.99 5,03,619.96 6,07,096.52 7,30,261.82 


Application of Funds / Assets (Rs. Cr)
Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
Fixed Assets 2,377.91 2,773.32 3,026.28 3,224.94 3,479.70 
Cash and balance with RBI 14,991.63 14,630.88 25,357.22 27,522.29 30,076.58 
Balances with banks and money at call and short notice 6,183.53 12,900.28 14,556.21 9,004.13 8,992.30 
Advances 1,98,837.53 2,47,245.12 3,15,418.86 383,407.97 487,290.42 
Investments 96,795.11 1,10,960.41 1,19,571.06 1,64,272.61 161,683.34 
Other Assets 21,869.30 19,212.98 25,690.33 19,664.57 38,739.48 
Total assets 3,41,055.01 4,07,722.99 5,03,619.96 6,07,096.52 7,30,261.82 

Efficiency Analysis

Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
Advances / Loan Funds Ratio 72.87 73.68 75.70 75.21 78.90 
ROE / RONW 17.37 18.75 19.80 16.93 17.21 

Advances to Loan funds ratio: This ratio indicates the efficiency with which the bank is able to deploy the funds it mobilises and is arrived at by dividing the banks total advances by its total deposits (i.e. deposits + borrowings). A high advance to loan fund ratio indicates that the bank might not have enough liquidity to cover any unforeseen fund requirements; if the ratio is too low, banks may not be earning as much as they could be.

Return on Equity (ROE) or Return on Net Worth (RONW) : measures the amount of profit which the company generates on money invested by the equity shareholders (i.e. share capital + reserves and surplus). In short, ROE draws attention to the return generated by the shareholders on their investment in the business. ROE is widely used in comparing the profitability of the company with other companies in the same industry.

Valuation Analysis

Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Net Interest Income Rs. 16,165.57 19,109.57 23,378.03 29,092.00 35,229.78 
Growth (%) (41.44 %) 18.21 % 22.34 % 24.44 % 21.10 % 
PAT (Rs. Cr.) 6,900.28 8,764.51 10,700.05 12,817.33 15,287.41  
Growth (%) 30.85 % 27.02 % 22.08 % 19.79 % 19.27 % 
Earnings Per Share – Basic (Rs. ) 29.10 36.60 44.10 50.90 60.00 
Earning Per Share – Diluted (Rs. ) 28.80 36.30 43.60 50.20 59.20 
Price to Earnings 21.67 20.35 22.95 21.34 28.18 

Dividend History

The Company has maintained an average dividend yield of 1.64 % over the last 5 financial years.

Liquidity and Credit Analysis

Consolidated (%)
Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Net Interest Margin Ratio (“NIM”) 4.50 4.40 4.40 4.20 4.30
Capital Adequacy Ratio 16.80 16.10 16.80 15.50 14.6 
Net NPAs 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.28 0.33

NIM: Banks focus on lending or advancing money at a rate higher than the rate at which they accept deposits. Net Interest Margin is calculated by dividing the difference between Interest earned (on advances) and interest expended (on deposits) by the amount of (average) Invested Assets. If this ratio rises from one period to the next, it indicates that the bank is able to deploy its funds more efficiently which results in greater profitability.

Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): or Capital to Risk Weighted Assets Ratio (CRAR) is a measure of a bank’s capital (net worth plus subordinated debt) expressed as a percentage of a bank’s risk weighted credit exposures (loans).

Two types of capital are measured: tier I capital, which can absorb losses without a bank being required to cease trading (such as ordinary share capital and free reserves); and tier II capital, which can absorb losses in the event of a winding-up and so provides a lesser degree of protection to depositors (such as long term unsecured loans and revaluation reserves which is taken at a discount of 55 % while determining its value for inclusion in Tier II capital).

Measuring credit exposures requires adjustments to be made to the amount of assets shown on a bank’s balance sheet. This is done by weighting the loans made by a bank according to their degree of riskiness, e.g. loans to Governments are given a 0 %weighting whereas loans to individuals are weighted at 100 %. Similarly off-balance sheet items such as guarantees and foreign exchange contracts are also weighted for their riskiness. On-balance sheet and off-balance sheet credit exposures are added to get total risk weighted credit exposures.

As per the Basel II norms the minimum capital adequacy ratios that apply are:

Tier I capital to total risk weighted credit exposures to be not less than 4 %;

Total capital (Tier I plus Tier II less certain deductions) to total risk weighted credit exposures to be not less than 8%.

The RBI currently prescribes a minimum capital of 9 % of risk-weighted assets, which is higher than the internationally prescribed percentage of 8 %.

Applying minimum capital adequacy ratios serves to protect depositors and promote the stability and efficiency of the financial system.

For details on classification of tier I and tier II see

NPA: Non Performing Asset or NPA is a classification used by financial institutions that refer to loans that are in jeopardy of default. Once the borrower has failed to make interest or principal payments for 90 days the loan is considered to be a non-performing asset. Any rise in the percentage of NPAs results in a sharp decline in the overall profitability.

Ownership pattern

In its latest stock exchange filing dated 31 March 2017, HDFC Bank reported a promoter holding of 26.00 %. Large promoter holding indicates conviction and sincerity of the promoters. We believe that a greater than 35 % promoter holding offers safety to the retail investors.

At the same time, institutional holding in the Company stood at 43.35 % (FII+DII). Large institutional holding indicates the confidence of seasoned investors. At the same time, it can also lead to high volatility in the stock price as institutions buy and sell larger stakes than retail participants.