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Lupin Equity Research

HomeCompanyLupin Equity Research

Date of Research – 22 January 2016

Price – Rs. 1720.95

About the Company

Incorporated in 1972, Lupin Limited (“Lupin” or the “Company”) is a pharmaceutical company producing a wide range of quality affordable generic and branded formulations and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs). The Company was formerly known as Lupin Chemicals Ltd. and changed its name to Lupin Limited in 2001 as a result of its amalgamation with Lupin Laboratories Ltd.

67% of the overall business of the Company comes from International Markets. Lupin’s global formulations business constitutes close to 84% of it’s overall business mix, and in terms of geographies, USA is its largest market outside India. The Company operates a globally integrated network of 11 manufacturing facilities spread across India and Japan.

The Company has a significant market share in key markets in the cardiovascular (prils and statins), diabetology, asthma, pediatrics, and Anti-Infectives.

Key Financial Figures

Consolidated (Rs. Cr)
Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Total Income from Operations 9,641.30 11,286.57 12,770.01 14,208.47  17,494.33
Expenses 7,371.34 8,283.78 9,150.42 10,455.02  13,001.19  
Earnings Before Other Income, Interest, Tax and Depreciation (Operating Profit) 2,269.96 3,002.79 3,619.59 3,753.45  4,493.14  
Depreciation 332.19 260.97 434.70 463.50  912.23  
Finance Costs 41.02 26.65 9.81 44.62  152.53  
Other income 27.85 116.48 239.75 187.70  106.51  
PBT 1,924.60 2,831.65 3,414.83 3,433.03  3,534.89  
Tax 584.16 962.15 970.40 1,153.58  978.51  
PAT (before Minority Interest and share of Associates) 1,340.44 1,869.50 2,444.43 2,279.45  2,556.38  
Profit/ (loss) attributable to Minority Interest 26.28 33.13 41.19 8.76  2.00  
Share of profit / (loss) of Associates –  (8.25) 
Consolidated Profit / (Loss) for the year 1,314.16 1,836.37 2,403.24 2,270.69  2,562.63  

Profitability Analysis

Consolidated (%)
Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Operating Profit Margin Ratio 23.54 26.60 28.34 26.42  25.68 
Net Profit Margin Ratio 13.90 16.56 19.14 16.04  14.61 

Operating profit margin is a measurement of the proportion of a company’s revenue that is left over after paying for production costs such as raw materials, salaries and administrative costs. Net profit margin is arrived at by deducting non operating expenses such as depreciation, finance costs and taxes out of operating profit and shows what is left for the shareholders as a percentage of net sales. Together these ratios help in understanding the cost and profit structure of the firm and analysing business inefficiencies.

Key Balance Sheet Figures

Sources of Funds / Liabilities (Rs. Cr)
Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
Share Capital 89.33 89.51 89.68 89.90 90.12 
Reserves & Surplus 3,923.56 5,114.67 6,841.89 8,784.16 10,894.25 
Net worth (shareholders funds) 4,012.89 5,204.18 6,931.57 8,874.06 10,984.37 
Minority Interest 72.29 59.45 66.94 24.10 32.08 
Long term borrowings 432.96 247.06 150.96 101.83 5,373.90 
Current liabilities 3,084.61 3,006.92 2,629.55 3,729.23 5,387.24 
Other long term liabilities and provisions 140.26 162.57 178.35 206.11 455.70 
Deferred Tax Liabilities 191.01 233.68 248.66 202.41 204.46 
Total Liabilities 7,934.02 8,913.86 10,206.03 13,137.74 22,437.75 

 

Application of Funds / Assets (Rs. Cr)
Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
Fixed Assets 2,689.38 2,803.55 3,001.85 3,296.05 8,637.92 
Noncurrent Investments 2.80 2.06 2.06 2.51 5.52 
Current assets 4,297.17 5,143.13 6,100.45 7,832.35 9,779.03 
Long term advances and other noncurrent assets 393.89 387.36 372.99 274.52 970.29 
Deferred Tax Assets 46.78 70.44 70.81 84.20 80.60 
Goodwill on consolidation (net) 504.00 507.32 657.87 1,648.11 2,964.39 
Total assets 7,934.02 8,913.86 10,206.03 13,137.74 22,437.75 

Efficiency Analysis

 
Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
ROCE 31.98 41.19 42.00 40.22 22.90 
ROE / RONW 21.62 25.25 26.49 27.08 20.75 

Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) measures a company’s profitability from its overall operations by calculating the return generated on the total capital invested in the business (i.e. equity + debt). Return on Equity (ROE) or Return on Net Worth (RONW) measures the amount of profit which the company generates on money invested by the equity shareholders. In short, ROE draws attention to the return generated by the shareholders on their investment in the business. Together these ratios can be used in comparing the profitability of the company with other companies in the same industry.

Valuation Analysis

Consolidated
Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Total Income from Operations (Rs. Cr.) 9,641.30 11,286.57 12,770.01 14,208.47  17,494.33 
Growth (%) 36.12 % 17.06 % 13.14 % 11.26 %  23.13 % 
PAT (Rs. Cr.) 1,340.44 1,869.50 2,444.43 2,279.45  2,556.38  
Growth (%) 51.03 % 39.47 % 30.75 % (6.75 %)  12.15 % 
Earnings Per Share – Basic (Rs. ) 29.39 40.99 53.54 50.45  56.69 
Earning Per Share – Diluted (Rs. ) 29.26 40.79 53.20 50.15  56.46
Price to Earnings 21.50 24.28 34.21 29.52  20.55 

Dividend History

The Company has maintained an average dividend yield of 0.52 % over the last 5 financial years.

Liquidity and Credit Analysis

Current Ratio

In Higher current ratio implies healthier short term liquidity comfort level. A current ratio below 1 indicates that the company may not be able to meet its obligations in the short run. However, it is not always a matter of worry if this ratio temporarily falls below 1 as many times companies squeeze out short term cash sources to achieve a capital intensive plan with a longer term outlook. Lupin’s average current ratio over the last 5 financial years has been 1.52 times which indicates that the Company has been maintaining sufficient cash to meet its short term obligations.

Long term Debt to Equity Ratio

In Companies operating with high debt to equity on their balance sheets are vulnerable to economic cycles. In times of slowdown in economy, companies with high levels of debt find it increasingly difficult to service the interest on their borrowings as profit margins decline. We believe that long term debt to equity ratio higher than 0.6 – 0.8 could affect the business of a company and its results of operations.

Lupin’s average long term debt to equity ratio over the last 5 financial years has been 0.08 times which indicates that the Company is operating with a very low level of debt and is well placed to meet its obligations.

Interest Coverage ratio

In Interest coverage ratio indicates the comfort with which the company may be able to service the interest expense (i.e. finance charges) on its outstanding debt. Higher interest coverage ratio indicates that the company can easily meet the interest expense pertaining to its debt obligations. In our view, interest coverage ratio of below 1.5 should raise doubts about the company’s ability to meet the expenses on its borrowings. Interest coverage ratio below 1 indicates that the company is just not generating enough to service its debt obligations.

Lupin’s average interest coverage ratio over the last 5 financial years has been 34.63 times which indicates that the Company has been generating enough for the shareholders after servicing its debt obligations.

Ownership pattern

In its latest stock exchange filing dated 31 March 2017, Lupin reported a promoter holding of 46.69%. Large promoter holding indicates conviction and sincerity of the promoters. We believe that a greater than 35 % promoter holding offers safety to the retail investors.

At the same time, institutional holding in the Company stood at 43.45% (FII+DII). Large institutional holding indicates the confidence of seasoned investors. At the same time, it can also lead to high volatility in the stock price as institutions buy and sell larger stakes than retail participants.

About the Author

Rajat Sharma pictureRajat Sharma is a well known stock market analyst and commentator. He has covered Indian markets for over a decade and is regarded for consistently identifying early stage investment opportunities. Attorney by qualification, Rajat has done extensive work for improving corporate governance and disclosure standards.

 

2 Responses to “Lupin Equity Research”

By tarun - 21 May 2016

sir i love your analysis n valuation methods

By tarun - 21 May 2016

is lupin likely to overcome goa plant issue n show similar growth story in future

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