Welcome to Sana Securities! Login | Subscribe Now.

NTPC Equity Research

HomeCompanyNTPC Equity Research

Date of Research – 19 January 2016

Price – Rs. 135.25

About the Company

NTPC Limited (“NTPC” or the “Company”) is the largest power generating company in the country. Set up in 1975, NTPC is engaged in the generation, distribution, and sale of bulk power to state power utilities in India. The Company generates power from coal, gas, hydro, and liquid fuel sources. NTPC ranked 337th in the ‘2012, Forbes Global 2000’ ranking of the World’s biggest companies. NTPC has current generating capacity of 42,454 MW, with 17 coal based and 7 gas based stations, located across the country. The Company plans to become a 128,000 MW company by 2032 with a well diversified fuel mix comprising 56% coal, 16% gas, 11% nuclear energy, 9% renewable energy and 8% hydro power based capacity.

The Company has 16% of the total national capacity, and contributes 25.6% of total power generation. NTPC has also diversified into hydro power, coal mining, power equipment manufacturing, oil & gas exploration, power trading & distribution.

Key Financial Figures

Consolidated (Rs. Cr)
Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Total Income from Operations 69,376.82 78,921.66 80,622.04 78,705.50  82,080.82 
Expenses 51,194.37 59,240.28 63,109.76 59,542.34  60,585.03  
Earnings Before Other Income, Interest, Tax and Depreciation (Operating Profit) 18,182.45 19,681.38 17,512.28 19,163.16  21,495.79  
Depreciation 3,823.22 4,769.99 5,564.61 6,153.41  6,009.91  
Finance Costs 2,480.54 3,203.07 3,570.37 4,151.26  3,651.08  
Other income 3,163.97 2,777.44 2,078.91 1,234.06  966.82  
Exceptional items (1,568.29) (10.99)  – 
PBT 16,610.95 14,485.76 10,456.21 10,103.54  12,801.62  
Tax 4,024.73 3,082.36 463.84 (58.89)  3,046.61  
PAT (before Minority Interest and share of Associates) 12,586.22 11,403.40 9,992.37 10,162.43  10,089.23  
Profit/ (loss) attributable to Minority Interest (4.56) (0.21) 6.03 (20.38)  (624.71) 
Share of profit / (loss) of Associates –  – 
Consolidated Profit / (Loss) for the year 12,590.78 11,403.61 9,986.34 10,182.81  10,713.94  

Profitability Analysis

Consolidated (%)
Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Operating Profit Margin Ratio 26.21 24.94 21.72 24.35  26.19 
Net Profit Margin Ratio 18.14 14.45 12.39 12.91  12.29 

Operating profit margin is a measurement of the proportion of a company’s revenue that is left over after paying for production costs such as raw materials, salaries and administrative costs. Net profit margin is arrived at by deducting non operating expenses such as depreciation, finance costs and taxes out of operating profit and shows what is left for the shareholders as a percentage of net sales. Together these ratios help in understanding the cost and profit structure of the firm and analysing business inefficiencies.

Key Balance Sheet Figures

Sources of Funds / Liabilities (Rs. Cr)
Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015  FY 2016
Share Capital 8,245.46 8,245.46 8,245.46 8,245.46   8,245.46 
Reserves & Surplus 66,030.35 72,995.49 78,758.03 73,848.52   80,951.05 
Deferred revenue 1,430.06 1,244.05 1,609.88 1,394.15   1,946.62 
Net worth (shareholders funds) 74,275.81 82,485.00 88,613.37 83,488.13   91,143.13 
Minority Interest 595.59 644.81 680.43 887.94 892.79 
Fly ash utilisation fund 126.98 234.93 326.23  – – 
Long term borrowings 54,851.94 64,587.72 75,542.30 93,362.92   1,02,238.28 
Current liabilities 20,802.07 26,702.39 29,659.91 35,946.33   40,090.17 
Other long term liabilities and provisions 2,415.06 2,975.01 3,978.38 4,625.22   4,675.28 
Deferred Tax Liabilities 764.49 1,080.72 1,239.31 1,265.61   1,409.40 
Total Liabilities 1,55,262.00 1,78,710.58 2,00,039.93 2,19,576.15   2,40,449.05

 

Application of Funds / Assets (Rs. Cr)
Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015  FY 2016
Fixed Assets 1,01,531.21 1,18,386.73 1,38,032.32 1,59,407.09   1,86,045.63 
Noncurrent Investments 4,922.88 3,300.42 1,663.46 14.12   14.80 
Current assets 42,805.39 44,818.67 44,386.43 41,791.62   34,556.57 
Long term advances and other noncurrent assets 6,001.90 12,204.14 15,957.10 18,362.70   19,832.05 
Goodwill on consolidation (net) 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62   – 
Total assets 1,55,262.00 1,78,710.58 2,00,039.93 2,19,576.15    2,40,449.05 

Efficiency Analysis

 
Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015  FY 2016
ROCE 11.90 12.31 11.94 9.85   9.86 
ROE / RONW 13.21 15.26 12.87 11.96   11.15 

Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) measures a company’s profitability from its overall operations by calculating the return generated on the total capital invested in the business (i.e. equity + debt). Return on Equity (ROE) or Return on Net Worth (RONW) measures the amount of profit which the company generates on money invested by the equity shareholders. In short, ROE draws attention to the return generated by the shareholders on their investment in the business. Together these ratios can be used in comparing the profitability of the company with other companies in the same industry.

Valuation Analysis

Consolidated
Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Total Income from Operations (Rs. Cr.) 69,376.82 78,921.66 80,622.04 78,705.50  82,080.82 
Growth (%) 5.29 % 13.76 % 2.15 % (2.38 %)  4.29 % 
PAT (Rs. Cr.) 12,586.22 11,403.40 9,992.37 10,162.43  10,089.23  
Growth (%) 28.24 % (9.40 %) (12.37 %) 1.70 %  (0.72 %) 
Earnings Per Share – Basic (Rs. ) 15.27 13.83 12.11 12.35  12.68 
Earning Per Share – Diluted (Rs. ) 15.27 13.83 12.11 12.35  12.68 
Price to Earnings 9.30 9.35 11.29 10.43  12.30 

Dividend History

The Company has maintained an average dividend yield of 3.08 % over the last 5 financial years.

Liquidity and Credit Analysis

Current Ratio

Higher current ratio implies healthier short term liquidity comfort level. A current ratio below 1 indicates that the company may not be able to meet its obligations in the short run. However, it is not always a matter of worry if this ratio temporarily falls below 1 as many times companies squeeze out short term cash sources to achieve a capital intensive plan with a longer term outlook. NTPC’s average current ratio over the last 5 financial years has been 2.33 times which indicates that the Company is well placed to pay for its short term obligations.

Long Term Debt to Equity Ratio

Companies operating with high debt to equity on their balance sheets are vulnerable to economic cycles. In times of slowdown in economy, companies with high levels of debt find it increasingly difficult to service the interest on their borrowings as profit margins decline. We believe that long term debt to equity ratio higher than 0.6 – 0.8 could affect the business of a company and its results of operations.

NTPC’s average long term debt to equity ratio over the last 5 financial years has been 0.72 times which indicates that the Company is vulnerable to economic slowdowns such as the one we have been witnessing over the last few years.

Interest Coverage ratio

Interest coverage ratio indicates the comfort with which the company may be able to service the interest expense (i.e. finance charges) on its outstanding debt. Higher interest coverage ratio indicates that the company can easily meet the interest expense pertaining to its debt obligations. In our view, interest coverage ratio of below 1.5 should raise doubts about the company’s ability to meet the expenses on its borrowings. Interest coverage ratio below 1 indicates that the company is just not generating enough to service its debt obligations.

NTPC’s average interest coverage ratio over the last 5 financial years has been 6.78 times which indicates that the Company has been generating enough for the shareholders after servicing its debt obligations.

Ownership pattern

In its latest stock exchange filing dated 31 March 2017, NTPC reported a promoter holding of 69.74 %. Large promoter holding indicates conviction and sincerity of the promoters. We believe that a greater than 35 % promoter holding offers safety to the retail investors.

At the same time, institutional holding in the Company stood at 22.62 % (FII+DII). Large institutional holding indicates the confidence of seasoned investors. At the same time, it can also lead to high volatility in the stock price as institutions buy and sell larger stakes than retail participants.

About the Author

Rajat Sharma pictureRajat Sharma is a well known stock market analyst and commentator. He has covered Indian markets for over a decade and is regarded for consistently identifying early stage investment opportunities. Attorney by qualification, Rajat has done extensive work for improving corporate governance and disclosure standards.

 

Leave a Comment