May be I have written so much about stocks which did not do well, asset classes (like Gold) which are certain to destroy investor wealth and about other negative biases about investing that I have started receiving mails like this:

Sir – I follow your blog regularly but over the past few weeks you have written that gold should not be in your holding, power and infrastructure stocks have high levels of debt and that we should stay away from E-commerce companies in India. Can you tell any stocks we can buy?

– Ganpathi

For a change I thought I will write about picking value stocks and talk about what I consider to be one of my best stock purchase decision. We recommended this stock in February 2014. Today I am making that recommendation public – CLICK HERE TO ACCESS OUR STOCK OF THE MONTH FOR FEBRUARY 2014, with full consent of the analyst who worked on it.

Investors who purchased this stock back then will understand why we said this (and I quote from the report):

Strong Dividend Stock . . . . . . . .  “In future, once the Company becomes debt free, we believe that dividends will increase substantially or that the company will accumulate ample cash piles to invest in new ventures”. . . . . .

The Company – Noida Toll Bridge Company Limited. This had value written all over it. Perhaps because I live in Delhi and use this bridge often that I was absolutely convinced that this bridge will be a revenue generating machine for many years to come.

Why I Will Never Sell this Stock

For those who notice our track record page will see that we closed our call on Noida Toll Bridge on the 10th of November 2014. after it generated a 75% capital appreciation in 10 months. In addition the stock paid a dividend of Rs. 2.50 during the year. That takes the absolute return to over 87%. Given that on my website, subscribers want to see returns in strict percentage terms, it was only right to close this call.

That said, think about it, why will I ever sell this stock? I purchased 10,000 shares for approximately – Rs. 2,10,000/- I have so far received a tax free dividend of Rs. 25,000/-. That is a dividend yield of 12%. Where else can I get tax free 12% p.a.? Further, this is hopefully not the end of story. I am convinced that the company will pay higher dividends going forward, taking my dividend yield even higher. of course this is if I do not factor in a fixed rate of appreciation on my capital.

Assuming that the company increases its dividend payouts by 0.50 ps per year. I will cover my Rs. 20.85 initial investment in approximately 4.5 years as tax free dividends. Whatever price the share is trading at 4-5 years from now will just be a bonus for me. Personally, even at the current dividend yield of 12%, I am happy to hold on to this forever.

About Picking Value Stocks: What Was Special About this Stock Back Then (and Indeed Now)

Noida toll bridge is a road construction company with one flagship project generating almost its entire revenue – the Delhi Noida Toll Bridge (DND Flyway). It commenced operations in the year 2001. 13 years on and the amount of traffic on the bridge has grown many times. This is despite the Delhi Metro and alternate routes coming up during this time. I guess India is just getting more and more crowded. The number of cars are increasing and the trend is likely to continue in future. All roads are good roads. I would actually pay 3 times over the current toll to use a road which helps me cut the Delhi traffic in the evening. Further, the steel and concrete bridge is in top shape and fit to generate higher toll revenues going forward.

Factoring-in toll pilfering, alternate routes and everything else that can go wrong it still seemed like a value stock. It sure seems like one today as well.

Second and the more important point, a first look at the financial statements of the company tells a story. Look at how the company has reduced its debt over the past 10 years:

Noida Toll Bridge Company (amount in Rs. Crore)
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Debt 358.52 323.52 185.99 217.83 198.11
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Debt 169.00 107.25 75.37 23.15 19.69

What do you expect the company to do with its toll collections once it pays of its entire debt which it incurred in constructing the bridge? May be pay higher dividends or build another bridge? I am happy with the higher dividends option which is why I purchased it in the first place. As for the second, I am convinced that roads and highways have an ever growing market in India.Given the amount of pollution in Delhi I wish this was not the case !

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